A replay-fault pilot that stopped.

One promising checkpoint did not reproduce consistently across six training roots

One excluded calibration root showed a 13.2% performance deficit after its faulty replay records had been evicted. Across six predeclared roots, only three deficits were positive and the median was 1.15%. The study did not meet its continuation rule.

01

THE QUESTION

Can a replay fault outlive its records?

A faulty target changes a network. That network supplies later bootstrap targets, so an error might continue to matter after the record that caused it has left replay.

I tested that possibility with the compact reference DQN for MinAtar Breakout. After 500,000 training frames, each complete checkpoint was copied into clean and fault branches. The clean replay buffer was unchanged. In the fault branch, the 16 newest rewards equal to +1+1 were stored as 00. Every subsequently collected reward was correct.

Networks, optimizer state, environment state, replay position, and random states began identically. A clean/clean sham fork had to continue bit-identically before either treated pair could run. The modified records carried stable IDs, making every replay draw and the final eviction directly observable.

Benchmark
MinAtar Breakout
Replay
Uniform FIFO · 100k
Continuation
200k frames
Evaluation
20 fixed episodes / 10k

For each training root, I integrated clean return minus fault return from the first evaluation after every altered record was gone through the fixed horizon. Dividing by clean performance over that interval produced the signed relative post-eviction deficit, DpostD_{\mathrm{post}}. Positive values mean the fault branch performed worse.

02

CALIBRATION

One root selected the fault size.

An excluded checkpoint tested fault sizes K∈{4,8,16}K\in\{4,8,16\}in order. The fixed rule was to lock the first size with at least 10% post-eviction deficit, or stop after 16. The six pilot roots and their evaluation panels had already been declared.

EXCLUDED CALIBRATION ROOT

Altered rewardsPost-eviction deficitDecision
49.13%Advance
89.66%Advance
1613.16%Lock

Sixteen altered rewards cleared the threshold. That result chose the pilot intervention; it did not establish an effect across independently trained agents.

03

THE RESULT

The calibration signal did not reproduce consistently.

Three roots showed positive post-eviction deficits and three showed negative deficits. The median was 1.15%, well below the predeclared 10% threshold.

Six paired DQN deficit trajectories fluctuate around zero. Three root-level post-eviction deficits are positive and three are negative, with a median of 1.15 percent.
Figure 1. Left: clean return minus fault return for every predeclared checkpoint pair. Right: cumulative relative deficit after all altered records were absent. The orange line marks 10%; the black dashed line is the observed median.
3 / 6Positive deficits
1.15%Median deficit
6 / 6Healthy clean runs
6 / 6Technical checks

Decision: stop or redesign. The pilot does not authorize the planned exposure-versus-residency study.

04

THE READING

No stable directional effect.

The pilot does not prove that the exact effect is zero. Six roots cannot characterize the full training distribution. They are sufficient to reject the continuation rule written for this project: this fault, learner, task, and outcome did not produce a signal stable enough for the proposed mechanism study.

The stop is empirical rather than technical. Every checkpoint learned above the fixed health threshold, every clean continuation remained healthy, and every exact sham passed. Enlarging the fault beyond the declared maximum, searching intervention times, or retaining favorable roots would answer a different question after seeing the result.

05

THE RECORD

The result remains inspectable.

The compact record includes one row per independent training root, every unsmoothed paired evaluation, the machine-readable gate decision, and the figure. The repository contains the frozen protocol, declared roots, checkpoint-fork implementation, replay instrumentation, and analysis.

Root metrics (CSV)Paired evaluations (CSV)Gate record (JSON)Figure (SVG)

Open the protocol and code

One checkpoint supplied a plausible story. Six new checkpoints supplied a reason not to publish that story as a finding.

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